We’ve spent a lot of time on this blog talking about how to study, but we’ve yet to address the question of how much to study.
Determining how much you should study for a test is a matter of predicting the future. And, shockingly, we’re not very good at that. But there is a way to get better at predicting the future: record your predictions and revisit them after the results come in.
For example, rather than haphazardly guessing how long it will take you to get ready to leave the house each day, you could record your guess the night before and compare it to how long it actually takes you to leave the house. Comparing your prediction to the true result creates an opportunity to reflect and adjust your next prediction. Do this regularly, and your predictions will improve.
Predicting How Much You Need to Study
The next time you have a test coming up, do the following:
- Record how much you think you need to study, on a scale from 0-10. (0 means you don’t need to study at all because you’re ready to ace the test right now; 10 means you need to study as much as possible because you would fail the test if you took it right now.)
- Next, record how much you do study, on a scale from 0-10. Whenever you wrap up your studying, give yourself a score for how much effort you put in.
- Then, when you get the test results, return to this document and record how much you actually needed to study.
Finally, based on the results, troubleshoot to improve for next time.
(Note: This model assumes you’re already studying effectively by creating written product, using spaced repetition, doing recall practice, and other techniques that convince your brain to remember the material.)
Here are some example scenarios:
Overconfidence
- How much you think you need to study: 2
- How much you do study: 2
- How much you actually need to study: 6
You felt quite confident about your knowledge, so you only studied a little, but you scored poorly on the test. Either you didn’t really know the material as well as you thought, or the test was far more difficult than you expected.
Solution: Take a difficult practice test before predicting how much you need to study. If you do well, you probably don’t need to study much. More likely, you’ll do poorly, revealing that you still have a lot to learn. Self-testing is the cure for overconfidence.
Insufficient Effort
- How much you think you need to study: 7
- How much you do study: 1
- How much you actually need to study: 7
You were well aware that you had a lot of studying to do. You even intended to study early and often. But life (or procrastination) got in the way, and you barely studied at all.
Solution: Focus on your productivity habits. Develop a routine of studying a little bit every day since the test is always coming. Use an effort-tracker to keep yourself accountable. Practice overcoming procrastination by starting even when you don’t feel like it.
Overpreparing
- How much you think you need to study: 9
- How much you do study: 9
- How much you actually need to study: 4
You were certain that the test was going to be incredibly difficult, and you weren’t very confident in your knowledge, so you put in a ton of time studying. But then, the test was easy, so you’d actually worked too hard.
It’s rare to make this mistake, and of our three scenarios, it’s the best mistake to make. But you still would have been better off spending less time studying for this test because that time came at the expense of other things you wanted or needed to do: sleep, fun, or studying for other classes.
Solution: Again, start with a difficult practice test. If you ace that, you’ll know that you don’t need to study much.
Feedback is the Key
Most of the time, we make these kinds of predictions unconsciously, and we never reflect on them after the fact. This is akin to throwing darts in the dark. If you can’t see where the darts land, you can’t improve your aim.
The power of this method is that it gives you feedback about your predictions and your efforts, so you can do slightly better next time.

Chris Loper has been working as a tutor and academic coach since 2014, racking up over 13,000 hours of experience supporting students.
Along with Greg Smith, Chris is the co-creator of Parenting for Academic Success, a series of classes that create empowered parents, confident students, and harmonious families.
Chris writes the popular self-improvement blog Becoming Better, where he also offers habit coaching, helping busy adults with habit formation and productivity.
Chris’s most recent endeavor combines his academic and habit-formation expertise to help students thrive in college. Visit SmartCollegeHabits.com to learn more.
In 2021, he published a humorous memoir titled Wood Floats and Other Brilliant Observations, a book that blends crazy stories with practical life lessons.
He lives in Issaquah, WA, where he is the owner of South Cove Tutoring.



